Posted by
celtic-dragon on Tuesday, August 08, 2006 7:02:10 AM
We have known for years that Israel is an undeclared nuclear power. We know that Iran (and others) have made little pretense at trying to appropriate nuclear weapons technology for their own strategic considerations. Up to this point, little attention has been paid in the media as to exactly HOW nascent nuclear powers intend to deliver their chosen weapons from point A to point B. North Korea stands as the sole exception to this by virtue of its perpetual adolescent posturing.
Israel has had over thirty years to work out the details of its nuclear deterrence strategy, and seems to have emulated the Triad model adopted by the United States, the former Soviet Union and France. This entails basing strategic weapons on land, sea and aerial delivery platforms to maximize survivability in the event of a first strike from an antagonist and thereby ensure a credible retaliatory strike can be launched. This is the concept of MAD, or Mutually Assured Destruction that most of us grew up with. I can remember practicing "duck and cover" bomb drills in primary school, and I'm sure many of you can remember this as well. A new generation of Israeli children are growing up with bomb shelter experiences, only they aren't drills.
Israel has relied on aircraft and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles, or IRBM's as primary nuclear delivery platforms from 1970 until recently. These include fighter-bombers such as the ubiquitous F-16, the outstanding F-15 Eagle and the aging but capable A-4 Skyhawk. The IRBM force is some 50 Jericho I missiles based on a French design from the 1960's, and about 50 Jericho II missiles developed in cooperation with the U.S., and similar in many respects to the Pershing missile deployed by NATO during the 1980's. Their ranges are about 500 and 1,500 km respectively, with a 1,000 yard CEP (circular error probability).
The final leg of the Israeli Triad is being built as we speak, in the German shipyards of Thyssen Nordseewerke and Howaldtswerke-Deutshe Werft. Israel has already taken delivery of three new "Dolphin" class fast-attack submarines based on the popular Type 212 class. The delivery of two more submarines was given final approval last November, with much of the total cost being shouldered by the German government. Three aging GAL class submarines built by Vickers of England have been decommissioned, with at least two of the subs now in Kiel, Germany undergoing extensive refits and modernization prior to delivery back to Israel for recommissioning.
Here is where the mystery begins. The Dolphin, and her sister ships Leviathan and Truncheon all have ten bow tubes for launching torpedoes and surface to surface missiles. However, four of the tubes are too big. The standard size tube is 533 mm diameter, which is nominal for the U.S Mk 48 torpedo, as well as the Harpoon anti-ship missile and the DM2A3 torpedo carried on these vessels. The remaining four tubes are 650 mm in diameter, which does not match any ordnance typically carried on a submarine with the possible exception of the Tomahawk cruise missile. Interestingly, Israel tried to purchase twelve Tomahawks in 2000. The sale was denied by the Clinton Administration under provisions of missile nonproliferation law.
So, what are we to make of the mysterious launch tubes? A number of security and military oriented websites, as well as the Los Angeles Times have reported a possible Submarine Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM) has been developed by Israel and tested in the Indian Ocean in 2002. Unnamed U.S. and Israeli military sources say that targets as far as 1,500 km distant were successfully engaged. It is widely believed that the missile is derived from the AGM-142 HAVE NAP "POPEYE" missile and has potentially been armed with a 200 kg nuclear warhead built around a 7 kg plutonium core. An air launched variant known as HAVE LITE is also believed to be in production. The maddening thing is, of course, none of this can be verified. It is a collective "Best Guess" that Israel is understandably hesitant to talk about. What it represents, if true, is an actual nuclear first strike option. Iran is playing with fire by openly calling for the extermination of Israel while blatantly pursuing a nuclear weapons program. We know from past example that Israel will take unilateral and aggressive action to deny such a program from coming to fruition. We may find out just what those tubes are for if this game continues.