Posted by
celtic-dragon on Wednesday, August 23, 2006 10:49:21 PM
For the Lawes of Nature (as Justice, Equity, Modesty, Mercy, and(in summe) doing to others, as wee would be done to) of themselves without the terrour of some Power, to cause them to be observed, are contrary to our naturall Passions, that carry us to Partiality, Pride, Revenge, and the like. And Covenants, without the Sword, are but Words, and of no strength to secure a man at all.
Thomas Hobbes "Leviathan", Chapter XVII
So we see Iraq today. The promise of Democracy, handed on a platter and paid in the blood of our fighting men and women, has been smashed and trodden under foot. More Iraqis died in the previous month then in any time since combat operations were supposed to have ended. Last month saw a new record in IED attacks on our troops. Last month, and the month before that as well, an average of one hundred Iraqis were killed every day in terror and criminal attacks. What we see is the reduction of humanity from post-modern civilization to basic Hobbesian determinism, where life is "nasty, brutish and short."
Reporters for Newsweek and Time magazine, as well as Fox News and others have discussed the particulars in detail. Bodies show up almost daily in Baghdad with signs of torture, and especially holes caused by electric drills. Shiite militias under the guidance and protection of government members operate in the open without fear from the U.S. or Iraqi Armies. Shiite death squads are known to be operating alongside forces from the Ministry of Security, and are believed responsible for the disappearances of Sunni civilians. Sunni insurgents conduct daily retaliatory attacks on Shiite Mosques, marketplaces and neighborhoods. Observers in Iraq and this country, including Bill O'reilly, have called the situation "a low level civil war."
The promise of a successful outcome to our endeavor seems more distant then ever. Yet when looking at experiments with democracy in other Third World countries, it doesn't seem so surprising. "In Tunisia, we have a twenty-five percent unemployment rate. If you hold elections in such circumstances, the result will be a fundamentalist government and violence like in Algeria. First create an economy, then worry about elections" is what a student told respected military correspondent Robert Kaplan several years ago. This pattern of elections followed by despotism or violence has ben observed in Algeria, Congo, Sierra Leone, Haiti, Venezuela and most recently in the Palestinian Authority. Kaplan goes on to say : "History has demonstrated that there is no final triumph of reason, whether it goes by the name of Christianity, The Enlightenment, or, now, democracy. To think that democracy as we know it will triumph-or is even here to stay-is itself a form of determinism driven by our own ethnocentricity."
There is no doubt that our President and others in the administration will continue to point at some of the positive things that have happened, while brushing over the things that have gone wrong. While denial may play on an evening news soundbite, it does NOTHING to ameliorate the situation. Clear eyed, realistic and unsympathetic policy review is what is needed now before Iraq is truly lost for good. The following questions need to be asked...
1. Is Democracy a realistic option here? What can be expected if the population wants victory over their tribal enemies more then they want peace? Should we prepare for a more authoritarian government in Iraq that can contain the violence?
2. Why are militias still being allowed to operate? According to military historian Professor Martin Van Creveld "Once the legal monopoly of armed force, long claimed by the state, is wrested out of its hands, existing distinctions between war and crime will break down..."
3. How can we best defeat the aims of Iran in this region? Should we give more support to Sunni and Kurdish groups in the event that Iraq becomes partitioned?
4. Do we need a new Secretary of Defense? Why did we invade with so few troops to begin with (and thereby lose control of the population immediately)? Do we need to send more troops IMMEDIATELY to gain control of the situation NOW before it spirals further out of control?
5. At what point do we decide if the situation is well and truly lost beyond recovery? What do we do then?
We have a limited amount of time in which to act. As bad as things are now, they can get much, much worse, and especially if we were to just pull out summarily. We are stuck with this situation of our own creation, yet I believe there is still some chance to affect an outcome that we can live with. We need Iraqi politicians who aren't corrupt or dealing in back alley murders. We need a coherent and realistic policy. We need leadership with the guts and vision to admit past mistakes and then make the necessary changes. We need these things very soon. Our men and women who have been wounded and killed in this endeavor deserve no less.